Helene on Track to Become a Major Hurricane, Severe Impacts Likely for Florida, Georgia and Carolinas

Helene has gotten much more organized since yesterday, has now become a category one hurricane, and appears ready to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane of category three or higher. At 11 am this morning Hurricane Helene had maximum winds of 80 mph. It also has become a large storm, so impacts will be felt far from the center. The satellite loop this morning shows the center of the storm over water near the NW tip of the Yukatan peninsula. You can see the "exhaust" fanning out from the storms edges on the satellite loop. That is a sign of a hurricane intensifying with little or no "shear" to slow it down.

I think that we'll see the storm really ramp up today and tonight and easily become a catergory three hurricane, and possibly a four or a five. The storm also will become a fast moving hurricane. The combination of high intensity and fast forward speed will mean a wide area of wind damage and power outages speading far inland across Georgia and the western Carolinas. The initial landfall area and areas to the east along the eastern Florida panhandle and BIg Bend area will have a very bad hit with both wind and storm surge.

Here is the 11 am forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. Remember the cone on the track forecast shows where the center of the hurricane could track. The hurriane is large and impacts of rain and wind will extend far out from the center, especially on the east side.

Right now the NHC has maximum sustained winds at 125 mph at landfall tomorrow evening. They say this forecast may need to be raised higher if the hurricane intensifies as rapidly as it has the potential to do. Here are the GFS and European maximum winds gust forecast maps. The GFS especially tends to overdo the wind speeds a bit, so often the European is a more accurate picture. Both show a huge area of Georgia and parts of the western Carolinas with wind gusts high enough to blow down trees and knock out power. With the likely number of power outages being extreme, there will probably be areas with the power out for days. Notice also the maps show the mountains of NC, northern GA and also the extreme Upstate of SC have a very high gusts. And also note the lower coast of SC.

Rainfall will be enough to cause flash flooding, but with the quick movement, widespread devastating flooding for most areas won't be common. One big exception to that will be in the mountains. Ongoing heavy showers and storms prior to the core of the storm arriving, and intensified rain amounts caused by lifting the tropical rain laden air to the higher terrain, will combine to cause huge flooding and landslide issues in some of the mountain areas. Many of these same areas will also be losing power, so quite an emergency could develop.

One more concern will be for the possibility of tornadoes being spawned by some of the rain bands extending out on the northest side of the storm. Because of that, parts of the eastern Carolinas and Georgia are outlined in the severe weather risk areas for Thursday and Thursday night.

Stay very aware of local forecasts, watches and warnings. Remember, the forecast can always change over time, so be sure you have the lastest for your particular location. Follow instructions from local Emergeny Management, and stay safe!