Helene Strengthens to Category Two Storm, Rapid Strengthening Possible Today, Severe Imacts to SE US

Hurricane Helene is strengthening this morning. As of the 8 am advisory, Helene is a category two hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. As the sun comes up and illuminates the storm this morning, you can see on the satellite loop that the storm has much more structure to it today than late yesterday. That improved structure, extremely warm water in it's path, and light winds in the upper atmosphere will likely result in significant strengthening today. We may see a period of very rapid strengthening.

Here is the latest forecast track from the NHC. Helene is still expected to become a major hurricane today of category three or higher. It is also expected to increase in forward speed. The combination of high intensity and fast forward speed will allow damaging wind gusts to extend far inland, so downed trees and power outages will be a major issue for much of Georgia, South Carolina and western North Carolina.

Keep in mind again that the cone is for the center of the hurricane's expected path and impacts will extend far out from it. My thinking is that the storm center may be more likely to follow the eastern half of the cone, and if there is any adjustments to the forecast track it may be to nudge it a little more to the east. Here are the wind gust computer forecasts from the GFS and European. The GFS is usually overdone on these gusts, so the European is probably a better guide. Either way though, many, many folks will be without power after it moves through and clean up and power restoration could take a long time.

Flash flooding is possible along the hurricane's path. Rain has already been an issue aheadh of the hurricane in parts of GA, Upstate SC and the mountains of NC. The mountains of GA, SC and NC will be a very hard hit area from both wind damage and flooding with this hurricane, and landslides are likely.

Tornadoes will also be a risk, especially in the rain bands in the NE quadrant of the the storm. This risk will extend all the way to the coast. Here is the severe weather risk map for today and tonight from the NWS.